As Morocco has entered the second phase of the epidemic by recording several local cases and an increase in the number of deaths from the Coronavirus, the situation worries citizens who would like to know the trends of the epidemic in the country. To respond to Moroccans' questions, Hespress FR contacted Mohamed El Youbi, director of the Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control at the Ministry of Health.
In strict sanitary confinement imposed by the State since the beginning of March, when the Covid-19 epidemic began to hit hard the European countries, the Moroccans for whom most of them have never experienced a situation in their lives. similar, impatient and would like to know the ins and outs of the situation.
What are Morocco's forecasts in terms of the number of cases of coronavirus and how many deaths at minimum and maximum?
"The predictions at this stage are very crude. We are waiting for the data at the end of this week to be able to refine the results and we can have fairly accurate forecasts. For the moment, in our forecasts, between the minimum and the maximum (the confidence interval) there is too large a gap because there are certain data that we still do not have and among these data, is the state of the cases which will be recorded these 4 to 5 days to come, and this is what will allow us to put a scale to our mathematical model which, will give us an idea of the results after the first measurements as the closing of schools and gathering places.
This will also give us a more precise idea of the first indicators concerning sanitary containment. Anyway, all of our forecasts indicate that there is a high probability that the situation in Morocco will be better than that of European countries. "
Currently we are in stage 2 of the epidemic, will we escape stage 3?
"No, I'm not saying that. Epidemiologically, we had predicted from the start that we were going to move on to the second stage, and we said there was a moderate probability that we would move on to the third stage of the epidemic. It is especially the intensity of the third phase "which should be different.
The third phase does not count with "with the number of cases, it is about its spread over a large area. But when we say that, it automatically means that there will be several cases and that is counted by tens of thousands of cases. And it is on the question of these tens of thousands of cases that we estimated that the probability was not high. But on the fact that there is a wide spread and that it is possible to find the virus easily, it is inevitable, because the virus unfortunately spreads by contact, when you touch the handles, surfaces, objects , products etc. This is why these 5 days will be decisive for the mathematical model because it will show us if the measures taken have paid off. And chances are they will have an impact on our forecast. "
When can we expect the peak of the epidemic in Morocco?
"It is difficult for us at the moment to say when the peak will take place. What is certain is that we are still, even if there are discrepancies in the figures, in an increasing trend.
Citizens should not delude themselves and think that next week will be better and that there is nothing to worry about. We have to be very careful, these measures and precautions must be maintained and even in homes, in families. There are people in families who go out (to work or to go shopping, note) so care must be taken between members of the same family.
We advise citizens to take the necessary measures and to be patient. It is better that we are patient now and a little longer, rather than relaxing and ending up in an even worse crisis scenario than this. "
Citizens believe there should be several unreported cases in the country. Why not do massive and national screening?
“We have to clarify this point. There is no country that has done a national screening. It is not achievable and it is not realistic. We are not in the logic of screening, we are in the logic of rapid detection. When we do a screening, it means that we will go to people who have no symptoms and test them, it is done for other diseases.
In the science of public health and epidemiology, when we enter a stage of epidemic, there we are in the stage of global pandemic, the principle is not to do laboratory tests of all case, (…) for the moment we are in the logic of laboratory test after manifestation of clinical signs. We don't want to use tests that are not 100% reliable. We use PCR (DNA amplification, note), it is the best and it is the most reliable technique.
To put it in simpler language, if we screened a person who shows no signs and the result turns out to be positive, the result is that this person will have to be put in isolation since we want to isolate the virus and the 'prevent spreading. We are already in this scenario since we are all in containment and everyone is supposed to apply it! This is why when I tell you that if we wait and apply these isolation measures as it should, this wave will pass quickly and with ease. People should not take too much confidence and think that we have passed this stage. ”